---
title: "How many pilgrims are expected in the 2027 Holy Year?"
description: "There is no official forecast. The 730,000 the press keeps quoting is sensor-measured footfall for 2026, and the 850,000 comes from a blog. What the three Holy Years with data actually say."
url: https://santiago.es/en/xacobeo-2027/how-many-pilgrims
locale: en
---

# How many pilgrims are expected in the 2027 Holy Year?

Xacobeo 2027 · Numbers

The short answer is that nobody knows, and that the two figures going around are not what they look like. This page explains where they come from and what you can actually infer from the Holy Years that do have data.

**Official forecast**

There isn't one

**Current record**

530,844 Compostelas (2025)

**Holy Door**

Opens 31 Dec 2026

![Fachada del Obradoiro de la Catedral de Santiago vista desde el centro de la plaza, con dos peregrinos tumbados boca arriba en el empedrado en primer plano, un músico montando su equipo a la izquierda, un grupo de ciclistas con las bicis y unas treinta personas repartidas por la explanada](https://santiago.es/img/obradoiro-multitud.jpg)

[© Edmilson Silva · CC BY-SA 3.0](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pra%C3%A7a_Obradoiro.jpg)

By [Cesar Rodriguez](https://santiago.es/en/author) · updated 6 October 2026

It is one of the most asked questions about 2027, and the honest answer fits on one line: **neither the Xunta, nor the Archdiocese, nor the Pilgrim’s Office has published a pilgrim forecast for the Holy Year**. What does exist is two numbers circulating online, and neither of them is a forecast. It is worth knowing what they measure before repeating them.

## The 730,000 is not a 2027 forecast: it is 2026 footfall

This is the figure quoted most and misread most. It comes from the **sensors the Xunta has installed along the routes**, and it measures **this year, 2026**, not next year. At the launch of the Xacobeo campaign in Madrid on 28 September 2026, the release says it in as many words: the sensors installed along the Jacobean routes «raise the figure to around 730,000 walkers, taking into account those who walk sections without applying for the Compostela». On 22 September the same source gave 736,000.

What happened next is that several outlets, and the automatic summaries search engines now produce, placed that number next to «Xacobeo 2027» in the same headline, and from there it reads as if it were what is expected for the Holy Year. It is not. Two different things ended up sharing a number, and the number has caveats of its own: we cover them in [the Camino in numbers](https://santiago.es/en/camino-de-santiago/pilgrim-statistics), where we explain that the Xunta has given three different conversion factors between Compostelas and footfall and has **never published the methodology** behind the sensors.

## The 850,000 comes from a blog, and the blog says so

The other figure that turns up in searches is «around 850,000 pilgrims in 2027». It is not official and does not claim to be: it comes from a private Camino guide publishing it as its own estimate. Useful to know somebody did the sum, not useful as data. If you find it quoted with no source, that is the source.

## What you can look at: the three Holy Years with data

The solid ground is in the past. The Pilgrim’s Office panel publishes the annual series back to 2003, so you can see exactly how much each Holy Year rose over the year before. And the result is more interesting than any forecast, because **the jump has shrunk at every Holy Year**.

**How much each Holy Year rose, from the Pilgrim's Office panel**

| Holy Year | Year before | Holy Year | Multiplier |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2004 | 74,324 (2003) | 179,870 | ×2.42 |
| 2010 | 147,254 (2009) | 272,385 | ×1.85 |
| 2021-2022 | 347,566 (2019) | 438,307 (2022) | ×1.26 |

From 2003 to 2004 the Camino multiplied by almost two and a half. From 2009 to 2010, by less than two. And the extraordinary 2021-2022 cycle, measured against the last normal year before it (2019), came out 26 % higher. Three Holy Years, three multipliers, each smaller than the last.

## Why multiplying 2026 by one of those does not give you a forecast

The temptation is to take the latest multiplier and apply it. If 2026 closes near the figures it is running at (on 4 October the Cathedral announced [this year’s 500,000th Compostela](https://santiago.es/en/camino-de-santiago/pilgrim-statistics)), a ×1.26 would land above 700,000 Compostelas and a ×1.85 would pass a million. That is arithmetic, and we show it so you can see where the big numbers come from, but it is not a forecast of ours and there are three reasons not to treat it as one.

First, the base effect: 2004 started from 74,000 pilgrims and growing from there is easy, while 2027 starts from half a million. Second, the 2021-2022 cycle was a double Holy Year running through a pandemic, so its ×1.26 is not comparable with the other two. Third, capacity: the bottleneck in a Holy Year is not how many people want to walk, it is [how many beds exist](https://santiago.es/en/where-to-stay) in the last hundred kilometres, and those do not double in a year.

What is settled, with dates

The pilgrim count is unknown, but the calendar is not. The [Holy Door](https://santiago.es/en/xacobeo-2027/holy-door) opens on **31 December 2026** and closes on 31 December 2027, and **25 July 2027 falls on a Sunday**, which is exactly what makes the year a Xacobeo and the most pressured date of the whole Holy Year. If what you want is to pick your dates, that is planned with the calendar rather than with a forecast: [when to visit in 2027](https://santiago.es/en/xacobeo-2027/when-to-visit), month by month.

## How we will know the real number, and when

The figure that ends up being the official one is Compostelas issued, and it is known **day by day**: the Pilgrim’s Office panel publishes the last day with data and the running total for the year, and we track it in [the Camino in numbers](https://santiago.es/en/camino-de-santiago/pilgrim-statistics). January 2028 will bring a provisional total, and it is worth knowing that **the Office cleans up its records months after the year closes**, so the definitive 2027 figure will shift a little during 2028. One more reason to distrust any round number published in advance.

## Frequently asked questions

**How many pilgrims are expected in the 2027 Holy Year?**

There is no official forecast: neither the Xunta, nor the Archdiocese, nor the Pilgrim's Office has published a figure for 2027. The 730,000 going around is the sensor-based estimate of 2026 footfall, not a Holy Year forecast, and the 850,000 is a private blog's estimate.

**Where does the figure of 730,000 pilgrims come from?**

From the sensors the Xunta has installed on the Jacobean routes, and it refers to 2026. The release for the Xacobeo campaign launch in Madrid, dated 28 September 2026, says the sensors «raise the figure to around 730,000 walkers, taking into account those who walk sections without applying for the Compostela». The Xunta has not published the methodology behind those sensors.

**How many pilgrims were there in the last Holy Year?**

The extraordinary 2021-2022 cycle closed with 178,914 Compostelas in 2021, still under pandemic restrictions, and 438,307 in 2022. The previous normal Holy Year was 2010, with 272,385. As a recent ordinary-year benchmark, 2025 closed at 530,844, the record for the whole series.

**Will there be more pilgrims in 2027 than in 2026?**

Almost certainly yes: all three Holy Years with data rose over the year before. What cannot be said is by how much. The jump has shrunk at every Xacobeo (×2.42 in 2004, ×1.85 in 2010, ×1.26 in 2022 against 2019) and 2027 starts from a base of half a million rather than 74,000.

**Do I need to book accommodation further ahead in 2027?**

In the last hundred kilometres, yes, and that advice holds whatever figure the year ends up producing: beds do not grow at the pace of Holy Year demand. The Xunta's public albergues never take bookings, so booking ahead does nothing there and what decides it is your arrival time.

## Carry on here

**[The Camino in numbers](https://santiago.es/en/camino-de-santiago/pilgrim-statistics)** — The numbers — The daily series from the Pilgrim's Office panel, by route and by month, and what the two circulating figures actually measure. — See the numbers

**[When to visit in 2027](https://santiago.es/en/xacobeo-2027/when-to-visit)** — Plan your trip — Month by month, where the pressure is expected, and the week of 25 July, which needs planning on its own. — Pick a date

**[The Holy Door](https://santiago.es/en/xacobeo-2027/holy-door)** — The Holy Door — It opens on 31 December 2026. What it is, how you go through it and what is known about the ceremony. — Read

**[When Santiago fills up](https://santiago.es/en/where-to-stay/when-santiago-fills-up)** — Where to stay — The dates the city runs out of beds, with the 2026-2027 timeline. — See the dates